Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published January 16, 2026

U.S. Treasury yields fell midweek as inflation reports revealed consumer prices increased in December. Yields recovered toward the end of the week as the latest employment data showed the labor market remains resilient.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of dozens of everyday consumer goods, increased 0.3% in December, in line with economists’ forecast. The CPI year-over-year came in at 2.7%, which was also in line with economists’ projections.

“We have seen this movie before — inflation is not reheating, but it remains above target,” said chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Ellen Zentner. “There is still only modest pass-through from tariffs, but housing affordability is not thawing. Today’s inflation report does not give the Fed what it needs to cut interest rates later this month.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of January 12 at 4.18% and traded as low as 4.13% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.82% and traded as low as 4.79% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment decreased by 9,000 to 198,000 for the week ending January 10. This was less than the 215,000 claims that economists estimated. Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 19,000, reaching 1.88 million.

"We see no signs that labor market conditions are worsening," said lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten. “While hiring remains depressed, employers have not pulled back further.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 1/12 at 4.23%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.84%.